法國(guó)核電政策專家Mycle Schneider在第七屆國(guó)際清潔能源論壇上做了《2018世界核能產(chǎn)業(yè)現(xiàn)狀報(bào)告》（WNISR）的解讀報(bào)告。該報(bào)告從1992年開(kāi)始以年度報(bào)告的形式對(duì)全球核電的規(guī)劃、投資、建設(shè)和運(yùn)營(yíng)提供全面的概述，是核電領(lǐng)域最具獨(dú)立性的研究報(bào)告。論壇副理事長(zhǎng)、發(fā)改委能源所原所長(zhǎng)韓文科研究員與論壇副理事長(zhǎng)兼秘書(shū)長(zhǎng)周杰研究員共同為該報(bào)告作序。

中英文序言全文如下：

Foreword: A View from China

by HAN Wenke and ZHOU Jie

The development of the world’s nuclear industry currently faces economic, environmental, and safety concerns. A stream of problems must be dealt with, including, among others, the sourcing of funds; the attainability of uranium resources; the processing of nuclear waste; the safety issues within nuclear technology; public opinion and social acceptability; the aging of nuclear facilities and professional staff; the difficulty of ensuring nuclear non-proliferation; and of course competition from renewable energy sources. Past nuclear disasters at Three Mile Island-2 in the United States, Chernobyl in the Soviet Union, and Fukushima in Japan have all undoubtedly contributed to strong currents of anti-nuclear sentiment throughout the world. Caught in between the strong and often vocal conflicts of the pro- and anti-nuclear factions, a confused public may easily lose sight of the truth. The question of how to overcome this binary opposition, and rationalise the discourse concerning the nuclear industry, is no less than a test of human intellect.

The World Nuclear Industry Status Report (WNISR), chiefly edited by Mycle Schneider, provides for us just such an objective and independent report, based on a third-party-perspective which can open the gate to discussions of sustainable development of nuclear energy. This reputable report gives a detailed and thorough summative description of all the significant changes in the world nuclear industry this year, enriched by specific information for individual regions and countries.

Last year we translated the entirety of the WNISR 2017 into Chinese to facilitate wider circulation, which proved to have a positive influence and inspired deep reflection within the Chinese readership. Nuclear power which has consistently throughout the last 20 years been the most important option to replace coal-fired power generation, no longer plays that role today. However, the WNISR, with detailed and updated data, shows that the number of nuclear reactors under construction in the world has been steadily decreasing for the last five years (including this year), and that the annual increase in power generation by wind and solar sources has by far surpassed that of nuclear energy, and does provide for Chinese readers a new framework in which to view the issue and a chance to rethink the future of nuclear energy.

China now ranks first in the world in terms of the scale of its nuclear-power programs under construction and is also enthusiastically expanding its international collaborative programs through the ‘One Belt One Road’ initiative. Domestic construction of nuclear power facilities is slowing down, affected by changes of power supply and demand, by public pressure concerning issues of safety, and by the emphasis placed by the government on the rehabilitation of ecosystems. However, both the Chinese government and nuclear industries remain optimistic and confident about the prospects of nuclear energy. At the same time, we do observe, and experience first-hand, the profound changes in the structure of global energy supply and demand, especially the increase and diversification of energy supplying. These changes can be traced back to internal developments in the energy industry, to the influence of the changing international political and economic environment, and to the global response to climate change. After the Fukushima nuclear accident, the nuclear energy industry has certainly been the fastest-changing in the field, compared to other types of energy resources. To researchers and practitioners in China’s energy industries, as well as to the quotidian public, there is value to be gained from an awareness of the world’s newest trends in nuclear power development, and an appreciation of the development plans and programs (both those completed and those long-anticipated) in other countries in real detail. Apart from experiencing and bearing witness to the growth, progress, and worries associated with our own nuclear industry, this can facilitate a critical, rational approach to thinking of the nuclear industry at large, and inspire ideas as to how China's nuclear power can expand further.   

In China, due to the slowing growth in demand for electricity, in combination with the rapid development of wind and solar power as well as the ‘excessive’ installed capacity of coal power, the need for further development of nuclear power has already diminished considerably. The social context of nuclear power-plant construction is also facing big changes; voices opposing nuclear environmental and safety issues have become inevitable ‘warnings’ to which policy-makers must respond. The result is the cancellation of some nuclear programs in the preparation phase, and delay of those under construction. Of course, a nuclear program can be delayed or end up over-budget for a variety of reasons. But the ever higher demands for nuclear safety and the growing production costs of newer nuclear technology are impediments that policy- and decision-makers cannot overlook.

On the other hand, in recent years the development of China’s renewable energies, especially on-grid wind and solar, have been rapid and significant. Their rates of annual increase are continually among the highest in the world, and the cumulative installation capacity is still growing. The annual amount of electricity generated by wind and solar energies is now level with and even higher than that from nuclear energy. However, holistically, the amount of electricity generated by China’s non- hydropower renewable energy still makes up only a very small percentage of the entire amount, and the wind and solar power generation will not be able to form a stronger competitive advantage at the present stage. The cost of manufacturing and installing solar and wind power in China is indeed quickly decreasing; in some provinces, the price of planned solar power can be equal to the price of nuclear power, with no need for state subsidies. The WNISR's discussion about nuclear power vs renewable energy, and Dave Freeman's view in his Foreword to WNISR2017 that "renewable energy is a lower cost and cleaner, safer alternative to fossil fuels than nuclear power," opens a window of thought for Chinese readers. 

This year, WNISR 2018 is set to greet its readers once again, with a report that is as well-researched and timely as it has ever been. For all those who care about the development of the nuclear industry, to read this new report as soon as possible is something well worth looking forward to, and we certainly trust that in China, this topic will continue to garner more attention in the future.

Beijing, July 13th, 2018

Han Wenke is Vice-Director-General of the International Forum for Clean Energy (IFCE, MACAO), and Senior Research Fellow at the Energy Research Institute (ERI), National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) of China.

Zhou Jie is Vice-Director-General and Secretary-General of the International Forum for Clean Energy (IFCE, MACAO)

前  言

當(dāng)前世界核能產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展面臨著一系列經(jīng)濟(jì)、安全和環(huán)境方面的挑戰(zhàn)，存在著資金來(lái)源、鈾資源可獲得性、核廢料處理、核技術(shù)安全性、公眾接受度、核設(shè)施和人員的老化、核不擴(kuò)散、可再生能源競(jìng)爭(zhēng)等一系列問(wèn)題。美國(guó)三哩島、蘇聯(lián)切爾諾貝利、日本福島核事故后，都毫無(wú)意外地在世界范圍內(nèi)形成了強(qiáng)大的反核浪潮。世界上反核派和挺核派爭(zhēng)鋒相對(duì)，各執(zhí)一詞，撕裂嚴(yán)重，孰是孰非公眾難以客觀分辨和評(píng)價(jià)。因此，如何超越核能利用的二元對(duì)立，進(jìn)行客觀理性對(duì)話是考驗(yàn)人類智慧的難題。由Mycle Schneider主編的《世界核能產(chǎn)業(yè)現(xiàn)狀報(bào)告》為我們提供了一份客觀、獨(dú)立、基于第三方視角的核能產(chǎn)業(yè)研究報(bào)告，打開(kāi)了核能產(chǎn)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的對(duì)話之門(mén)。報(bào)告對(duì)世界核能產(chǎn)業(yè)今年來(lái)發(fā)生的巨大變化，做了極其詳盡的總結(jié)和闡述，提供了大量的地區(qū)和國(guó)別的信息資料。

去年我們將《2017世界核能產(chǎn)業(yè)現(xiàn)狀報(bào)告》(WNISR2017)全文譯成中文推薦給中國(guó)讀者。在中國(guó)的讀者中產(chǎn)生了積極的影響，激發(fā)了許多深度的思考。核電過(guò)去20年來(lái)一直是燃煤發(fā)電最重要的替代品，但是現(xiàn)在卻風(fēng)光不再。報(bào)告以詳盡的最新數(shù)據(jù)資料展示的全球在建核反應(yīng)堆數(shù)量已經(jīng)連續(xù)多年（加上今年是第5年）下降，以及全球風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能的年增發(fā)電量已經(jīng)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超越核電發(fā)電量的增長(zhǎng)等事實(shí)，確實(shí)給中國(guó)的讀者提供了新的看問(wèn)題的視角和冷靜思考核能未來(lái)的契機(jī)。

中國(guó)現(xiàn)在是全球在建核電規(guī)模最大的國(guó)家，也在通過(guò)“一帶一路”等國(guó)際合作平臺(tái)積極開(kāi)拓國(guó)際核電合作項(xiàng)目。盡管?chē)?guó)內(nèi)的核電建設(shè)受到電力供求關(guān)系變化、公眾對(duì)安全問(wèn)題的關(guān)注以及政府強(qiáng)化生態(tài)環(huán)境約束等等因素的制約，有放緩的跡象，但是中國(guó)政府和核電產(chǎn)業(yè)界對(duì)核電的前景仍然充滿信心和期待。但同時(shí)，我們也看到和親身感受到，世界能源供需格局正在發(fā)生深刻的變化，能源供應(yīng)越來(lái)越充足，越來(lái)越多元化。這種變化既有能源產(chǎn)業(yè)自身發(fā)展的內(nèi)在原因，也有國(guó)際政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)大環(huán)境的改變以及應(yīng)對(duì)全球氣候變化因素的推動(dòng)。特別是日本福島核事故以來(lái)，核電行業(yè)無(wú)疑成為能源領(lǐng)域變化最迅速的一個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)。對(duì)中國(guó)的能源界尤其是核能產(chǎn)業(yè)界從業(yè)者、能源學(xué)者以及普通大眾來(lái)說(shuō)，除了親身經(jīng)歷和目睹中國(guó)核電產(chǎn)業(yè)的成長(zhǎng)、進(jìn)步與煩惱外，了解世界最新的核電發(fā)展態(tài)勢(shì)和趨勢(shì)，了解他國(guó)已經(jīng)謀劃、在建或期待了許多年的核電項(xiàng)目的真實(shí)境況與可能的前景，從而以更加理性的思維和態(tài)度思考和看待核電產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展以及中國(guó)的核電走出去。 

在中國(guó)，由于電力需求相比較過(guò)去增長(zhǎng)放緩，加上風(fēng)能、太陽(yáng)能的迅速發(fā)展以及煤電裝機(jī)相對(duì)“過(guò)剩”，發(fā)展核電的需求已經(jīng)大大降低。同時(shí)，核電站建設(shè)的社會(huì)環(huán)境也發(fā)生了較大變化，對(duì)安全和生態(tài)環(huán)境的關(guān)切提升，質(zhì)疑和反對(duì)核電的聲音登堂入室，成了決策層不得不聽(tīng)的“警示”，隨之而來(lái)的是一些核電項(xiàng)目在準(zhǔn)備階段被取消，一些在建的核電項(xiàng)目的延緩和拖期。當(dāng)然，在建核電項(xiàng)目超預(yù)算和工期拖延有多方面的原因，但人們對(duì)核電的安全性要求越來(lái)越高，核電技術(shù)越來(lái)越先進(jìn)造價(jià)卻越來(lái)越貴，以及決策層越來(lái)越慎重確是不爭(zhēng)的事實(shí)。

近年來(lái)，中國(guó)的可再生能源，特別是上網(wǎng)風(fēng)電、太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電發(fā)展非常快，年新增量位居世界前列，累積裝機(jī)規(guī)模越來(lái)越大，年發(fā)電量直追或者超過(guò)了核電。但是，在總體上，中國(guó)的非水可再生能源發(fā)電量在總的發(fā)電量中的占比仍然非常低，風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電在現(xiàn)階段還不具備頂替核電的實(shí)力。太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能的制造和安裝成本在中國(guó)確實(shí)下降很快，在個(gè)別省份，一些正在醞釀之中的不需要補(bǔ)貼的太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電項(xiàng)目的上網(wǎng)電價(jià)已經(jīng)可以和核電的上網(wǎng)電價(jià)持平，但這還未變成現(xiàn)實(shí)。WNISR報(bào)告關(guān)于核電和可再生能源發(fā)展的討論，以及Dave Freeman在WNISR2017報(bào)告前言中提及的“可再生能源與核電相比，是更為低成本、清潔以及安全的化石能源替代品”的觀點(diǎn)，對(duì)中國(guó)的讀者來(lái)說(shuō)，也是開(kāi)啟了一扇思考之窗。

今年，《2018世界核能產(chǎn)業(yè)現(xiàn)狀報(bào)告》(WNISR2018)又要與讀者見(jiàn)面了，今年的報(bào)告同樣是一份內(nèi)容豐富、資料翔實(shí)、跟蹤研究及時(shí)和時(shí)代感強(qiáng)的優(yōu)秀報(bào)告。對(duì)關(guān)注核電產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展人們來(lái)說(shuō)，盡快讀到最新的報(bào)告是值得期待的，相信這個(gè)話題在中國(guó)也將會(huì)有更高的熱度。

韓文科 國(guó)際清潔能源論壇（澳門(mén)）副理事長(zhǎng)，國(guó)家發(fā)改委能源研究所研究員

周  杰 國(guó)際清潔能源論壇（澳門(mén)）副理事長(zhǎng)兼秘書(shū)長(zhǎng)

2018年7月13日于北京